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Elo Rating vs. Winning Probabilities
(credit
to http://ascotti.org/programming/chess/elo.htm)
This table shows the correlation between the
difference in Elo points and the probability of winning a game (in
bold). So for example if a player has won 60% of her games against an
opponent, she would be approximately 72 Elo points stronger.
Conversely, a player that is 150 points weaker than his opponent, has
only a 30% chance of winning a game.
.99 +677 .66 +117 .33 -125
.98 +589 .65 +110 .32 -133
.97 +538 .64 +102 .31 -141
.96 +501 .63 +95 .30 -149
.95 +470 .62 +87 .29 -158
.94 +444 .61 +80 .28 -166
.93 +422 .60 +72 .27 -175
.92 +401 .59 +65 .26 -184
.91 +383 .58 +57 .25 -193
.90 +366 .57 +50 .24 -202
.89 +351 .56 +43 .23 -211
.88 +335 .55 +36 .22 -220
.87 +322 .54 +29 .21 -230
.86 +309 .53 +21 .20 -240
.85 +296 .52 +14 .19 -251
.84 +284 .51 +7 .18 -262
.83 +273 .50 0 .17 -273
.82 +262 .49 -7 .16 -284
.81 +251 .48 -14 .15 -296
.80 +240 .47 -21 .14 -309
.79 +230 .46 -29 .13 -322
.78 +220 .45 -36 .12 -335
.77 +211 .44 -43 .11 -351
.76 +202 .43 -50 .10 -366
.75 +193 .42 -57 .09 -383
.74 +184 .41 -65 .08 -401
.73 +175 .40 -72 .07 -422
.72 +166 .39 -80 .06 -444
.71 +158 .38 -87 .05 -470
.70 +149 .37 -95 .04 -501
.69 +141 .36 -102 .03 -538
.68 +133 .35 -110 .02 -589
.67 +125 .34 -117 .01 -677
(I simply didn't want to lose
this data,
should ascotti.org ever disappear.
This is their work, not mine. I just copied and pasted it here.)
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